Weather forecasting is a difficult task for Arctic communities, especially in the lower atmosphere where many are exposed to dangerous weather events. Cold temperatures, strong temperature inversions, low humidity, and crippling winter conditions are making life harder for people in the polar regions.
Therefore, accurate weather forecasts are vital in these areas to allow people to make informed decisions when leaving their homes to face the climate. But the systems used to monitor these weather events are scarce due to a lack of money and resources to deploy them to their respective areas. Regions in the lower atmosphere are therefore poorly observed, and with climate change increasing the risk of dangerous weather events, many in the Arctic are feeling vulnerable to potentially fatal events by climate disruption.
The National Institute of Polar Research
A research institution, the National Institute of Polar Research (NiPR), has discovered a new method for Arctic communities to predict weather patterns effectively. Its proposed framework is to introduce new weather monitoring systems that are lightweight and cost-effective so that local communities can easily operate them whenever they need to predict on-demand weather forecasts.
The study, published earlier this year by Professor Jun Inoue from the Arctic Environment Research Centre (part of the NiPR), and Dr Hajo Eicken from the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, outlined how these lightweight cost-effective weather systems can improve short-term forecasting and climate resilience in heavily affected climate regions.
The NiPR, based in Tokyo, is the main hub for Japanese scientific research. Its work is focused primarily on observing the polar regions by engaging in comprehensive research through observation stations in the Arctic and Antarctica. Its observations in the Arctic cover many areas and involve a vast array of sectors including the aurora, the atmosphere, ice sheets, land and oceanic ecosystems, and the Earth’s magnetic field.
Why the NiPR created the study
The NiPR’s study which revealed how Arctic communities can overcome this climate challenge, was prompted by their concern that the current monitoring systems used to predict weather forecasting are outdated and poorly suited for the task. Satellites have difficulty measuring weather in lower atmosphere areas, and weather balloons and drone-based observation systems are expensive while being difficult to launch and operate.
These systems are also designed to predict weather conditions at large, regional scales rather than local scales, making weather forecasting less accurate in smaller regions. These are areas that require the most vigilance, being places where the local communities frequently operate. Countries like Alaska, Canada, Russia, and the Nordic countries are areas where indigenous and local populations regularly make life-or-death decisions based on weather forecasts. Therefore, monitoring systems focused on smaller regions within these countries are essential to allow them to make better, informed decisions.
“This solution,” says lead researcher Professor Jun Inoue, “could contribute to a broader shift toward community-centred weather observations amidst a rapidly changing Arctic climate.”
What the study entails
The study builds on past research that discovered that weather forecasts in the Arctic can be significantly improved with just small amounts of enhanced atmospheric observations. Although previous campaigns using conventional radiosondes (packages attached to weather balloons) improved weather predictions in the lower atmosphere, these radiosonde systems are hard to operate as they are very expensive to launch. They also require trained personnel to run them, which limits the scope and usability of these instruments.
Therefore, scientists at the NiPR have proposed that local communities take charge of the weather monitoring systems so that on-demand weather forecasts will be more long-term, accurate, and reliable for their local areas. They aim to do this by focusing their systems on ultra-light, balloon-based monitoring sensors which local communities can operate themselves to measure atmospheric variables like temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind. These readings would be transmitted in real time and incorporated into weather prediction systems like the emerging AI-assisted forecasting models to allow for communities to gain access to more localised and reliable weather information.
When local communities operate these systems, it becomes easier to monitor the weather in any location and at any time, making on-demand weather forecasts easier to obtain. So, in the case of a coming storm, hurricane, or other rapidly evolving hazard, local communities can launch these systems to obtain highly accurate weather forecasts to help them better prepare for these climate events. This approach will be especially useful in the poorly observed regions of the Arctic, helping to tackle this issue and improve climate resilience for communities in these areas.
“Because the proposed system is lightweight, flexible, and comparatively low-cost, it could complement existing meteorological networks by enabling observations to be performed by local institutions, researchers, or communities whenever additional atmospheric data are needed,” says Professor Jun Inoue.
Comments? We want to hear them. Please write to editor@westenglandbylines.co.uk
Friends of Bylines Network
There has never been a greater need for grassroots journalism that investigates the stories that really matter, holds power to account and champions the voices of everyday citizens. We are proudly powered by volunteers but what we do isn’t free.
STAND WITH US for independent, citizen-led journalism that makes democracy stronger, and you will even get some exclusive benefits.
