Let me begin by expressing my appreciation and love of Russia’s rich culture, with just five examples of my favourites:
- David Oistrakh, the violinist, whose virtuosity and warmth enchanted the whole world;
- Anton Chekhov, the writer of short stories and theatrical plays, who dreamed of a better life in future Russia;
- Ilja Repin, the famous painter of landscapes and portraits, who after the Soviet revolution preferred to live in Kuokkala, Finland, near Leningrad;
- Peter Tchaikovsky, the composer who could express human emotions like nobody else, but allegedly had to die because of his homosexuality;
- Dmitiri Shostakovich, the composer who in his symphonies and other works reflected on the endless crimes of the Soviet communists.
Russia’s tragic history
Russia’s history is a tragic one, particularly in the 20th century. Its only major victory in World War Two, 1945, after millions of deaths, did not liberate its population but led to strengthening the Soviet dictatorship. There were also three military defeats which led to significant changes in political life and major revolutions:
- Russia’s military defeat against Japan in 1905 forced the Czar to accept his absolute power being curtailed and allow a Parliament (the Duma) to be created.
- Russia’s military defeat in World War One (1917), led to the abolition of the Czarist rule and finally to the takeover of the Communist Party.
- The retreat from Afghanistan in 1988 led to the collapse of Communist rule and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
How Putin should lose
There is good reason to believe that Putin, having lost his war against Ukraine completely, would not be able to stay in power. His dictatorship, based on the rule of the Secret Services, could collapse like the Communist dictatorship some 35 years before. The reason is that Putin’s power rested on his ability to crush opposition domestically and abroad by rude force. A defeat in Ukraine would abolish his pretence of superiority and invincibility – as it happened to Soviet rule after 1988.
To achieve such a defeat, several preconditions have to be fulfilled:
- A major war between East and West has to be carefully avoided. Putin’s war should end like the Afghan campaign in 1988, which the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, had called an “open bleeding wound”.
- To prevent a major war, the Europeans have to establish a credible nuclear deterrent on their own. France and the United Kingdom, financially supported by Germany and other EU members, should significantly expand their nuclear capabilities and provide security guarantees as the United States had done for NATO. The Europeans should hope and work for a future close cooperation with the USA in the framework of the Western alliance. However, as long as Donald Trump and the MAGA movement are in power, the U.S. security guarantee within NATO can no longer be taken for granted.
- The Europeans will have to closely coordinate and unify their defence procurements. Weapons production will have to be significantly expanded and harmonized. Some producers of cars, presently struggling with sales, could switch parts of their production facilities to military components.
- The coming months and years will be critical, since it will take some time before the Europeans have established a credible military capability and deterrent on their own.
There is no reason why some 500 million Europeans should not be able to mobilize the necessary resources: that population is more than three times that of Russia, some 145 million inhabitants.
In the meantime Ukraine needs all available (conventional) military support from the Europeans to strengthen its defences, which would also allow it to severely hit Russian military infrastructure and energy supplies. Weakening Russian military and energy logistics could become a key factor for Putin’s defeat. As long as energy prices are high and Russia can export enough oil and gas, it will be able to sustain its war effort. Never forget that the Soviet Union’s virtual bankruptcy in the late 1980s had resulted from the low energy prices prevailing at the time and thus a severely reduced national income.
How Russians would benefit
Putin’s defeat would liberate Russia’s population from the fake news and brain washing of the Kremlin-controlled media, it could stop the incredible corruption of the political and business elites and give money back to the population. It would also allow hundreds of thousands of Russians who had found asylum abroad to return and help their country’s reconstruction. A reinstated Memorial, the human rights association which had investigated Communist crimes, would now focus on rehabilitating the victims of the Putin regime. In the longer run, it could bring a free Russia (and Belarus!) “back to Europe” and thus guarantee peace on our continent. This would fulfil Chekhov’s dream of a better life for Russia’s population.
How the world would benefit
Putin’s defeat would be a dramatic achievement for the protection of international standards, particularly the rule of law and human rights. It would mean that international borders have to be respected and the violators of international law will be punished. The International Court of Justice could fulfill its obligations and bring Putin to justice – as the Court had done with the Serbian leader Slobodan Milošević. Finally, it would also send a strong signal to the second Trump administration, which has already started to question and dismantle the world order the USA had created after 1945.
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