The economic cost of Brexit, reliably estimated at around 5% of GDP and with a total loss to government coffers by 2035 of over £300bn, is unlikely to be offset by attempting to ‘make Brexit work’ – a slogan which rather confirms that it hasn’t. With support for rejoining the EU sitting at around 60%, the UK is indeed suffering a severe case of buyer’s remorse.
Acknowledgment of these facts by government remains virtually absent because to do so would openly acknowledge the case to rejoin. However, Labour’s decision to include a resounding ‘NO’ to rejoining in its election manifesto reflects the reality that, were a premature request to be vetoed by any one of the 27 member states (Britain was vetoed twice in the 12 years it took before joining the ‘gang of six’ in 1973), the political turmoil would be huge and probably set the clock back by years.
But if Brexit is indeed ‘made to work’, what does success look like?
The overwhelming evidence is that there is no credible argument that the UK’s decision to impose trade barriers with its nearest and largest market could result in anything other than economic harm. No matter how many negligible ‘trade deals’ are struck outside the EU bloc they have amounted only to a tiny blip against massive losses of EU opportunities. Economically, Brexit has not and can never outweigh its harms.
The UK – a unique perspective?
However, our relationship with Europe and the EU cannot be judged solely in economic terms. Culturally, the UK has nurtured its imperial past far longer than other nations. Our view of ‘things foreign’ sits curiously between an inculcated cultural superiority over ‘Johnny Foreigner’, whilst happily adoring the culinary and fashion style of France and Italy, the design and precision of Germany and Japan, and even the work ethic of the Polish plumber.
Almost uniquely amongst Western nations, the UK has never felt the jackboot of foreign oppression and so inhabits a cosy, contrived world whose future is seen by many as a pastiche version of an imagined past, and where the present slide towards poverty and obscurity is met with a resigned acceptance while clinging to myths of greatness.
In a world where every want can be met almost immediately, the UK has been encouraged to not understand the realities of industry, trade and finance. Foreign-owned print and social media, unfettered by facts or truth and championed by grifters and the ill-informed, are free to delude the population into believing that every problem, huge or small, imagined or real, can be solved by the most simple of means. We are encouraged, by a repetitive diet of fear and anger from media and ‘politicians’, to regard the UK’s membership of the EU or even the Council of Europe as disposable as a sheet of toilet paper, to be flushed away without a moment’s concern.
Seeing the folly
‘Making Brexit work’ will require peering down the opposite end of the Brexit telescope. Brexit will have worked when the UK can not only see the folly of its actions, but collectively agree that Brexit itself was and can only ever be an unmitigated disaster, no matter what. Only by exposing the true horror-show, by implementing our commitments in full and accepting the costs and pain of doing so, will the UK conclude the sense in seeking to rejoin.
But to start on the long and arduous path back to EU membership the UK must learn to look beyond its parochial ‘we want’ approach and ask itself the balancing question ‘what can we offer that could be good for both sides?’. We must consider the wider picture of what we see in our long-term relationship with the EU; not simply as a means to a short-term economic end, or as a transactional zero-sum game with ‘winners’ balanced by ‘losers’.
An intrinsic part of a greater whole
The reality is that in an increasingly uncertain world both the UK and the EU can and need to be larger, stronger and more cohesive together. The UK must view and believe in itself as European, not simply geographically but politically, economically and socially: a great nation at the heart of an even greater family. It must shift its view towards a pride in being at the heart of something better; a vision set in the future, not mired in the past. David Henig describes very clearly what will be required.
If Labour can set the correct tone so that this can be achieved within the current parliamentary term, the case for rejoining may well appear in their 2029 manifesto and, who knows, we may once again be EU members almost 20 years after that fateful day in June 2016. I live in hope.
We want to hear your views. Please send any comments to editor@westenglandbylines.co.uk
You might also be interested in the recent Letter to Sir Keir from Paul Ryder
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