A boost of at least £639mn could be injected into the South West’s economy per year – equivalent to a gross value added (GVA) increase of at least 0.48% – via the UK’s re-entry to the European Union (EU), new independent econometric research has suggested. In the longer-term, GDP growth of £92bn could be spread across the UK’s nations and regions.
The new study, modelling the key benefits of membership, was commissioned by Best for Britain and carried out by Frontier Economics. It assesses the impact of closer UK-EU integration, the regional effects for local economies and the effect of US tariffs being imposed by Donald Trump. Under each of the scenarios, exposure to a specific change in trade costs resulting from tariffs and/or regulatory alignment reflects the mix of economic activities that take place in England’s South West region.
Economic growth in the EU
Reinstated EU membership and the resulting economic upswing could recoup at least two-thirds and up to 90% of the economic loss inflicted by Brexit that has damaged local economies across the UK, including in the South West, the report found.
The economic case for EU membership is clear, with independent research finding the region would see a GVA boost of 0.48% under a conservative estimate of the benefits of full EU membership. This scenario far outpaces the estimated gains on offer from a food and drink deal alone (0.05%) or a standalone customs union (0.11%). Only full membership delivers deeper trade, stronger investment and, critically for businesses in the South West, a shield against the damaging impact of US tariffs.
It comes after polling conducted by YouGov and commissioned by Best for Britain found that over half of all voters GB-wide (53%) would support UK membership of the EU, with just a third (32%) opposed – with progressive parties able to galvanise voter support by making the case for the UK’s EU membership.
Support for the UK government’s current approach to UK-EU relations is shallow: just a fifth (19%) express “strong” support, while over twice that number (42%) say they “somewhat support” the strategy. There is widespread discontent with the status quo in UK-EU relations, and active opposition to further loosening ties with the EU. Overall, only three in ten voters (29%) support keeping the UK-EU relationship as it is now, and around three in five (58%) oppose further divergence from the EU.
Campaigners are now urging Prime Minister Andy Burnham – who has pledged to deliver “good growth in every postcode” – to signal the UK’s intent to renew EU membership to boost economic growth in the South West of England and across the UK, shield local economies from Trump’s hostile and chaotic tariff policy, and fund vital public services relied on to keep Brits safe and healthy across the country.
Support for the South West
Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain, said:
“With its stunning coastlines and famous surfing beaches, the South West of England is also home to a strong fishing industry, the iconic Stonehenge and the famous Cornish pasty, but after ten years of sky-high inflation, soaring bills and a cost-of-living crisis hammering hard-working families, the region is still punching far below its weight.
“Both the public and the data are clear: as this research sets out, EU membership is the quickest and most popular way to get Britain growing again – and, as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham now has a chance to transform the South West of England’s fortunes, put money back into people’s pockets and help local businesses thrive.”
Helen Godwin, Mayor of the West of England, said:
“It has been ten years since the Brexit referendum, and figures suggest the UK’s economy has taken a 6% hit since we left the EU. While the UK and EU have taken crucial steps to build new ties, there is still further to go.
“I welcome Best for Britain’s report, which clearly demonstrates the economic benefits of a stronger relationship with Europe. The evidence shows that closer alignment on goods and services could deliver a significant boost to GDP, trade and exports, both nationally and here in the West.
“For our area, this matters. The West of England is the country’s fastest-growing regional economy and a global trading hub. Reducing barriers where we can would support more seamless trade, attract greater investment, and mean more opportunities for local people and businesses.
“At a time of global uncertainty, strengthening our relationship with the EU is a practical step toward protecting and creating jobs and boosting growth.”
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