On 2 May this year, 25 of the 48 seats on Oxford City Council were up for election. Every two years, this council has elections for half its seats. In 2024, a councillor also stepping down in one ward meant an additional seat was contested.
Introduction: some political context particular to Oxford
A new ‘party’, the Independent Oxford Alliance (IOA), ran a vigorous campaign centred on opposing Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs). They were supported by exceptional coverage in the Oxford Mail. The IOA candidates elevated LTNs into a major City Council election issue, although LTNs are a County Council and not a City Council responsibility.
An additional factor in these city elections was the exit of 10 Labour councillors from the Labour group on the Council over Labour’s Gaza war stance. The impact of this upon Labour Party membership in Oxford, and upon the activity of members and volunteers in the city appears to have been significant. The outcome was that Labour lost seats and some majorities were significantly trimmed. Oxford does have a large Muslim community (8.7% in the 2021 census). Election results maintained Labour as a minority administration, and a new Labour cabinet for the City has recently been announced.
The generally Labour voting Asian community in Oxford have been notable for their opposition to LTNs and to Bus gates, also known as traffic filters (see below). Six of the ex-Labour councillors became the Oxford Socialist Independents; others became independents. Not all of these ex-Labour councillors were due for election in 2024; councillors in this other cohort will be up for election again in May 2026.
Overall election results and comments
The Oxford City Council results were:
Of the 25 seats up for election: Labour 11, Lib Dem 5, Green 4 and Independent 5 (4 IOA). This gave an overall composition of Labour 20, Lib Dem 9, Green 8 and Independent 11. The changes from 2022 were Labour -12, Lib Dem 0, Green +2 and Independent +10.
Councillor Emily Kerr (Green Party) said:
“In the three East Oxford LTN wards (the ones where the LTNs were introduced in 2022), the generally pro-LTN Greens won all three wards against anti-LTN independents – including in my ward of St Mary’s where I am a Green Party Councillor. Outside those wards in East Oxford the independents held or made gains: and there was significant seat-swapping. The new independent anti-LTN party won 4 seats from Labour or existing independents but independents lost in others which is why total number of independents remains flat at 11.”
Anti-LTN IOA results
The IOA won four seats. Each of these seats can be considered closely grouped near the Cowley car factory and associated supply chain industries concentrated on the eastern side of Oxford’s ring road. This is an area with a significant amount of council housing, private rental properties and the largest concentration of student accommodation in Oxford. Many students do not vote, at least not in Oxford. My own canvassing in previous local elections in some of these areas revealed the presence of many retirees from the nearby automotive companies, with predictable views about cars, traffic reduction measures, LTNs and the six ‘bus gates’ being introduced in November this year. Bus gates will significantly restrict car movements within designated times, on six major roads in Oxford, except for exempt drivers. The IOA may struggle to get support outside these areas, but the credibility of having gained some councillors result in gains in 2026.
The independent representation in general on the Council has changed but the total number of independents is identical. The Labour net loss of only two seats reflects the Party gaining seats from independents. The Greens won two additional seats in wards where the other councillor is not a Green, each ward being a two member ward.
The Cowley ward
The Cowley ward result – the election of an IOA councillor – reflects voting in two very different polling districts: Barns Road and Florence Park. Barns Road abuts the side of the ring road and has council flats and houses, in addition to owner-occupied homes. Many local residents appear to be employed in the industrial areas on the other side of the ring road with employers such as BMW-Mini and Unipart, or in retail employment in the Templars Square and John Allen Centre shopping centres which are in the centre of the Cowley ward on the boundary between the two polling districts. Barns Road has a far greater voting age population; however, voter engagement, posters or turnout have tended to be larger in Florence Park.
Florence Park Oxford – Steve Daniels on Geograph – CC BY-SA 2 0
Florence Park is an LTN with very strong local support for the measures adopted to make this so. Stopping rat-running across the area has been very popular, notably with those with children at the nearby Lark Rise Primary School. Canvassing over a 7-year period in this ward, I have observed many differences of views and concerns between the two polling districts. Election of an anti-LTN councillor very much reflects attitudes prevalent in the Barns Road polling district, tested in successive local elections during 2014-2021.
How a new IOA councillor will relate to the pro-LTN residents of Florence Park remains to be seen.
There appear to be two rather different cultures here. Barns Road and environs with employment reflecting the industrial nature of the neighbouring areas, plus a lot of private rental properties notorious for rapid population turnover in a City which recent reports indicate has the second highest private rents in England outside London. Contrast this with Florence Park which has a greener population reflected in local election votes in recent years (particularly 2014-21). It also is the home of initiatives such as Oxford City Farm, on a former Middle School site and Flo’s in the Park, established in a former Children’s Centre with strong community support It also has an extremely active Community Centre reflecting the diversity of skills in the Florence Park estate. Florence Park itself, opened on 27 July 1936 to serve the Florence Park housing estate built from 1929 onwards to serve the local car industry workers, is still amongst the best parks in Oxford, and is well-used.
County elections in 2025
After these results for Oxford City, opportunities in the Oxfordshire County Elections in May 2025 are there for the IOA since the County is the ‘Highways Authority’ and responsible for LTNs. Labour may still be riding high on a 2024 general election win, but high national poll figures did not increase Labour representation on the City council in May 2024. Lib Dems and Greens, currently running the County Council after Labour withdrew, will be defending LTNs, but there are far more pressing issues than LTNs at County level including long-term under-funded Adult Social Care. Labour, Lib Dems and Greens will have policy positions reflecting the County as a whole – not just Oxford which is one District Council area out of five in Oxfordshire. Whether the IOA can, in a year, create an agreed and credible package of County policies seems doubtful. Most Lib Dem county representation is outside Oxford, and the Greens County seats are all outside Oxford.
Further City elections in 2026
Within Oxford City, local elections in May 2026 could change things appreciably. First the total of 17 Lib Dem and Green councillors could grow, making them a larger group than Labour currently at 20. This particularly applies if the gloss has been knocked off the Labour Government as popular expectations may not be met. The IOA is going to need to widen its range of recognised policies to be able to gain more seats. This is not impossible, after the credibility of gaining seats in May 2024, and with the continuing probable support of the local press. So, my judgement would be that Labour may suffer, unless it can win back seats currently still held by Gaza ‘refuseniks’ – known as Oxford Socialist Independents – who were not up for election in 2024.
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