Before the recent US election, the relationship between Canada and the US – two vast neighbouring countries – was cordial with close economic and security ties and a long history of cooperation. However, much has changed in the space of the few months since Donald Trump took office.
First the threats, then the reality of tariffs – currently 25% on many Canadian goods, including steel and metals. Canada has retaliated with tariffs of its own. It is not just the impact on trade, however. Trump has threatened to make Canada the 51st US state, at first viewed as a ‘joke’ but since he repeated the line several times that he would conquer its territory through ‘economic force’, nobody is laughing now. Many Canadians are outraged, angry and anxious but determined to fight back.
Elbows up Canada
This has become the rallying cry of Canadian resistance. It originates from a famous ice hockey player, Gordie Howe, whose signature defensive style and large elbows were said to account for his success on the ice. T-shirts, hats, banners are emblazoned with the term, often showing the flag. There is even a new podcast called Elbows Up, dedicated to helping Canadians cope with this seismic shift in the world order. A new sense of solidarity and national pride is manifest in a country which has always been slightly uncomfortable with flag waving, patriotic gestures, unlike its erstwhile ally.
When a relationship goes sour
In scarcely 50 days, Trump has in turn, insulted, angered and confounded the entire world. He has torn up the established rules-based order in the West in pursuit of his MAGA ambitions. Having bullied in public view the Ukrainian president with his attack dogs, he turned his wrath on Canada, Mexico, Greenland, the Panama Canal, to name but a few. He has already broken international treaties, defied the law and continues to rail against anything which stands in his way in the most vindictive manner.
Canada is a rich, independent member of G7, a member of NATO, and has been prominent in the recent European discussions about Ukraine. However, there is no getting away from its reliance on good trading relations with the US. Trade and investment between Canada and the US support millions of jobs and help ensure the secure flow of goods and people across the border that is vital to both countries’ economic competitiveness and prosperity.
Both have traditionally supported close security cooperation, but now Trump sees his neighbours as “freeloaders” who are not willing to pay more of the defence bill, as part of NATO. “We’re the schmucks that are paying for the whole thing”, Trump said at a recent rally. Canada’s current spending comes in at just over one per cent of GDP — roughly $20bn a year. So, there is a good case for increasing its contribution, as for many other members of the alliance, in an increasingly unstable and dangerous world.
However, it is his designs on annexing Canada which have sounded the loudest alarm bells. The president made clear in a phone call with Trudeau last month that he wants to revise the boundary between the two nations, set by a 1908 border treaty, as he expressed at this press conference with head of NATO, Mark Rutte. It is rare to see a president argue for annexation on the ground of aesthetics, if you can believe that. Many see a parallel here with Vladimir Putin’s justification for war with Ukraine, arguing that invasion was justified because “it is not a real country”.
Surprise shift in Canadian domestic politics
The election of Mark Carney as leader of the Canadian Liberal Party, and as PM, following the resignation of Justin Trudeau, has seen a revival in the party’s standing in the polls. The threat posed by Trump has served to unite the country more than any other issue in recent years. Carney, who has never been in public office, has been positively received, as a glimmer of hope. A career banker, former governor of the Bank of Canada and of the Bank of England, he is cut from very different cloth than his opposite in the White House. Once described as the George Clooney of the banking world, he retorted that it was a very low bar.
At the start of 2025 the party trailed by 20 or more points but is now statistically tied with the official opposition, the Conservatives, led by career politician and populist, Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre, dubbed ‘Trump-lite’ by many, has seen his ratings fall significantly as more Canadians worry about a likely recession, losing their jobs, and the threat to Canada’s sovereignty. A new survey suggests that “dealing with US president Trump” is now the most important issue influencing Canadian votes, ahead of the economy.
A general election must be held by the end of October. Already Carney is making it clear that “Canada is not for sale”. At his swearing-in ceremony he said, “We will never, in any shape or form, be part of the US. We are very fundamentally a different country”. Canada “expects respect from the US”, he continued, hoping that the government could find “ways to work together” with the Trump administration. He also noted the country was built on the bedrock of three peoples: Indigenous, French and British, emphasising its close connection to the UK and France.
This week, he has flown to Europe to meet with President Macron and Keir Starmer, thereby demonstrating that he wishes to cement closer relations with both France and the UK and form a united front against Trump. He was invited to meet King Charles, as head of state in Canada. They are sending a clear message to the president of the US.
Fear and loathing in East Sooke, VI
With close family and friends on this beautiful island, in the northwest Pacific, I have visited many times. Vancouver Island (VI) is blessed with breathtaking scenery, emerald-green rain forest, soaring peaks, and a varied coastline. Its natural riches and resources, and temperate climate, have attracted people from all over the world to make their home here to experience its stunning scenery, wildlife, and enjoy its tranquil atmosphere. Yet you never forget how close to the US it is, Mount Baker looms just across the water.
Talking about Trump, my Canadian family voice exactly the same concerns as the rest of the country.
My niece, Kate, writes:
“Trump’s tariffs are meant to crush us economically into submission as he wants our natural resources. I don’t think that his actions support the global order or democracy. It is like a dystopian fever dream. I am very concerned about our sovereignty.
“In practical terms, we have been avoiding American products at the grocery store. Everywhere there are stickers showing which products are Canadian. All the government liquor stores have taken American alcohol off the shelves. We are avoiding buying big ticket items made in the States too. But I miss the lovely fresh produce from California.
“Many homes now have our flag flying – something usually reserved for Canada Day celebrations. We can be quite a divided nation because we are so large, but this has brought us together in ways I wouldn’t have thought possible. Proud to be a Canadian, of course. While we are not known for being wildly patriotic, I really believe that Canadians are prepared to fight for our sovereignty, even if the cost is great. Elbows Up!”
She also made the point that she is fine with most Americans. “They are mostly regular people with everyday concerns just like us. I am not willing to count them out just yet. ‘We the people’ applies to us all.”
We have several American friends on the island. One family moved from a red (Republican) part of northern California back in the 1970s but has dual citizenship so that they can still vote. Renée told me that she thinks that “the tariffs are a diversion for more far-reaching takeovers of democratic institutions”. Trump’s disdain for the rule of law, human rights, agreed norms of behaviour and diplomacy certainly suggest this. What she also finds shocking is how many American women actually voted for Trump, given this administration’s views on women’s rights. No surprise then that people are frightened. We should not forget that many Americans too are appalled by what is happening at home.
With thanks to Catherine Laite, a proud Canadian.
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