I am sure I’m far from being the only one who gets a sinking feeling every time POTUS, the President of the United States, doubles down and says “the fight goes on”. Don’t we all wish we could sit down with him and tell him – however gently – to put the country first?
Mr President,
Normally it is only in works of fiction that one man has the opportunity to save the world with a single deed.
Today you have that opportunity. In the name of God take it.
Not only America but the world stands at a crossroads. I do not need to tell you this, you are an intelligent and experienced statesman and you know the score precisely. The world we will face this time next year under a Trump-Vance Presidency will be a very different one from the world we know or the world we ever want to experience.
You will be aware that with his record of proven lying, financial malpractice, criminal behaviour and sexual predation, a man like Donald Trump would never even be considered for a job in teaching, healthcare, the police or the civil service, however well qualified he was another respects. Trump entered the presidency eight years ago with no political knowledge or skills, and all he has learned in the meantime is how to hurt other people more ruthlessly and more effectively than before. After he left office all but four of the 40 people who had worked in his cabinet said openly that they would never work with him again and that he is unfit to be president.
A profoundly troubling scenario
This time he is better prepared. He is ready to fill posts in the public service, from top to bottom, with loyalists who share his destructive and hateful view of the world. At home he will carry out a mass pardon of the January 6 insurgents, he will stifle free speech and deliver on his promise to imprison those who disagree with him. This will no doubt include trying to put together a case that there was electoral fraud used against him in 2020. He will exploit his majority on the Supreme Court to the extent possible and enlarge it as opportunities arise. He may bring in on his coat-tails a commanding majority in both houses. He will resume his policy of breaking up families and imprisoning immigrant children. He will make “peace“ with Putin, handing him Ukraine and Moldova, and leaving Russia standing at the gates of the European Union. He will in all likelihood abandon NATO, the World Health Organisation and the Paris Climate Accord. He will take deliberate steps to accelerate climate change, and nullify such efforts as the rest of the world can achieve towards Net Zero. He and Vance will deliver on their pledge to put an end to reproductive freedoms, banning not only abortion (even to save the life of the mother) but also IVF.
Once again we may think of this dystopian world as fiction, but sadly it could become a reality. Trump has made his intentions clear, and for once he is not lying. In 2016 we dared to hope that his bark was worse than his bite and that was rapidly proven wrong. All that prevented him from doing more harm was lack of competence and lack of preparedness. Now that has changed. Project 2025 is already in a fairly advanced stage of planning, and for those who care to read about it, that is a profoundly troubling scenario.
Nothing is inevitable
We all know what is at stake. The only matter at issue is what can be done. You clearly believe that you are the only person who can stop Trump. You hark back to 2016, when Obama talked you out of standing on the ground that even then you were not a young man. You no doubt believe you would have had a better chance against Trump than did Hillary Clinton, and you may well be right. We will never know. Four years later you won, and no doubt for you this was a vindication. All that was surprising, given Trump‘s pedigree and his record in office, was that your win was not more overwhelming.
And even now you have a great deal going for you. The awful events of 6 January 2021 should deter many voters, and people have long memories. You have a very successful presidency, with the economy in a better state now than four years ago. You remain a skilled and effective conciliator, and without doubt the most experienced politician at a national level in your country. Most people sensible Americans outside his own base despise Trump. This should be incredibly powerful ammunition on your side.
However, despite all this, it is not 2020 all over again. You have zero chance of winning against Trump, however good a president you might well still be. Why? In this age of instant communication and social media, it is not good enough just to be good – image is everything. To protect your image you’ve spent much of the past year hiding away and avoiding press conferences, while Trump has been grandstanding every single day, even exploiting the many court cases against him. The only time many people will have seen you is during the disastrous TV debate, exerpts from which will undoubtedly be played again and again by the hostile media. You say that you were tired and jetlagged (two weeks after your last long distance flight), but that sadly will cut no ice.
You cannot be a part-time president. It’s not good enough to have good days and bad days. Good days can be very good: you were hugely impressive on the Normandy beaches and in your interview post NATO. However the only part of Normandy that the public will see repeatedly is the declaration from your old friend Seth Molton that you did not recognise him. From the NATO event people will be fed replays of your two catastrophic faux pas, calling Zelinskii “Putin” and Harris “Trump”. That is not trivial. How do you know that your final debate with Trump will not happen on an off day? Even if it goes well it will not erase the memories of what has happened before.
Your friends mean well
On top of that, your last hopes of remaining in the White House have been taken away by well-meaning supporters like George Clooney, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Shumer, Barack Obama and the many members of Congress who have joined them in calling for you to stand down. They all love and admire you and now fear they have stayed silent for too long. But they have been driven by circumstances to press the nuclear button. Once that has happened there is no going back. The money men are starting to walk away and even the unions are on the fence as to whether to support you or Trump. The media will continue to amplify every misstep by you and every misgiving expressed by your allies.
In these dreadful circumstances, the one thing that is quite clear is that you cannot win. According to opinion polls in the swing states, it is now clear that there are several other leading Democrats, including Ms Harris, who would have a better chance against Trump than you. But they need time to develop their public profile if they are to make the chance reality.
You have said that you will stand down if advised by your doctors that you had a significant medical condition. The change in you over the past four years points to precisely that – it does not matter what the diagnosis is – and it is part of an inexorable progression. As time goes by, the bad days will become more frequent and the good days less so. This is not compatible with a demanding, stressful 24 hour job like the presidency. It would become inevitable at some point during your second term, if they were to be one, that you would have to hand over. Those who love you and care about you know this and do not do not want to see it come to this.
We know that your most trusted advisors are your wife Jill, who is clearly trying very hard to protect you from humiliation, and your son Hunter. Of him it will be said, rightly or wrongly, that he stands to gain personally from you being in the White House and in a position to pardon him in the light of his recent convictions. I know that you are too good a man to do such a thing, but unfortunately in politics appearances count. Try not to give too much weight to the loving but misguided pleas of your family. Listen instead to those in your party who want what is best for the country and the party, and who would like to see you and a very noble and successful for your term as president with dignity. They would like to see you enter a well-deserved retirement, spared the stresses and traumas of a vicious campaign and of an office which can only take a very serious toll on you.
Make that decision now.
Remember how eager Trump is to see you continue as a candidate. Why would he do that but for the knowledge that that would spell victory for him?
It may well be your wish to go down in flames, but if that happens neither you nor your country will ever know what might have been, and whether would have been a chance, just one chance, of rescuing the situation. Counterfactuals are compelling but painful.
Do you want to be a remembered as one of the great presidents who left the country in a better state than before, or as a well-meaning but deluded and bloody-minded enabler of a Trump landslide? I know what I would prefer.
You might remember the night you and your predecessor watched the musical Hamilton. Perhaps you can reflect on these words?:
“Teach them how to say goodbye… If I say goodbye the nation learns to move on“.
Footnote 24 July 2024: four hours after this article appeared, Joe Biden announced that he is withdrawing from the contest, although he will continue as president until January. A hard but inevitable decision which has earned him respect and opened up the contest for his succession. Let us hope it was not too late.
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