The EU has contributed significantly to the spread of stability, peace, and prosperity across the continent of Europe since its inception. It is, essentially, a democratic and “a peace project”, as President of the European Council Donald Tusk described it in 2019.
Yet the war in Ukraine, US tariffs, and shifting alliances highlight the need for the EU to chart its own course, strengthening defence while promoting peace and becoming a beacon for democracy, humanity, and fair trade.
The UK and the EU
The EU and the UK need to build trust and collaboration with other countries in support of a new global order. Key partners will include other advanced economies recently undermined by the US/Trump policies – notably Canada, but potentially also Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Also crucial will be the major emerging economies, including China, who may have a competing vision of how this global economic order should evolve.
Most important for the EU is its relationship with the UK, both on economic grounds and because the UK shares the same fundamental interest in preserving a rules-based international economic system and an enhanced leadership role for a broadly defined Europe within it. There are so many shared problems to deal with. Cooperation and not individual tribalism is essential to finding the answers.
Many of the key priorities have already been identified, including agreeing a security pact which would allow the UK to be a partner in efforts to strengthen the European defense industry,. Collaboration to sustain Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, economic agreements on food safety standards, emissions, trading, and UK dynamic regulatory alignment with the EU in specific economic sectors are also vital. Additionally, Sir Keir Starmer’s more positive approach towards the EU is at least a start to untangling the mess of Brexit to the benefit of all.
Challenges to EU / UK relations
There are major threats to successful negotiations. First is the possibility that the UK will try and duck the inevitable hard choices between cooperation with President Trump and providing whole-hearted support to a pan-European effort to address the global governance gap.
Second is the possibility that the EU will not be flexible enough on, for example, the indivisibility of the single market, which would frustrate mutually beneficial cooperation in such critical areas as deepening and broadening European financial markets.
The case for the UK having closer ties with the EU, and eventually rejoining it, will gain momentum if common sense prevails against Brexit idealism and international isolation. However, a positive case for this to defeat Reform UK’s stance needs to be made with confidence and clarity.
It is to be hoped that both sides see their strong common interest in overcoming these and other obstacles.
US global stance
President Donald Trump has fundamentally reshaped the US role in the global economy. He has shown a readiness to impose significant tariffs on the bulk of US trade unconstrained by any international rules and on a legally questionable domestic basis.
He has put core US security alliances in doubt and threatened the territorial integrity of close allies while withdrawing the US from global efforts to fight climate change, disease and poverty. This action will only increase the pressure from these factors and escalate instability.
Instead of being a force for international stability and problem solving, the US is now a key source of global economic uncertainty. US policy appears to be driven by narrowly defined national interests and a transactional approach, with no place for values, principles, rules, and long-term alliances.
To date, Trump seems undeterred by the negative impact these policies have had on the US economic outlook, with the US Fed’s latest growth projection for 2025 revised down by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7% and the S&P 500 down 7% from its February peak. The US has sometimes changed or ignored international economic rules when convenient in the past. But the nature and extent of the current shift goes far beyond anything seen in decades.
The fracturing of this economic order poses an existential threat to the EU and to the UK. This is exacerbated by President Trump’s evident deep hostility towards the very idea of the EU. The EU and UK therefore have a strong interest in responding to Trump’s actions by leading an effort to preserve an international economic system based on values, principles, and rules.
Ukraine war and defence spending pressure
It is over three years since the Ukraine war began. Trump is struggling to come to terms with the reality of Putin’s aggression, character, and tactics. He seemingly cannot grasp the complexities of the Middle East either. The ongoing turmoil and recent shifts in US policy highlight the urgent need for enhanced defense capabilities across Europe to deter threats and offer real security guarantees to Ukraine if any peace deal is to hold.
However, Europe has under-invested in defence for decades, spending well below NATO’s 2% GDP target. From 1990 to 2021, this shortfall reached about €1.8 trillion, with Germany responsible for a third of the deficit due to major post-Cold War cuts.
However, the tide is turning. EU nations are ramping up military budgets. In 2014, Greece was the only EU country in NATO to meet the 2% target. By last year, 17 NATO-EU members are expected to have reached it when the data is confirmed, with several countries close to Ukraine and Russia going further.
With calls for further increases, echoed by President Trump, the bloc’s defense spending could rise to 2.5%-3% of GDP or more in the coming years. To preserve peace and stability, this looks essential.
Source: NATO. Data as of 2024. Note: Figures for 2024 are estimates. All data is based on 2015 prices and exchange rates.
This stability is not only vital for business but also the safeguarding of democracy and the values of humanity developed since the fascism that led to the horrors and destruction of World War Two.
Europe, the EU, Britain, and their allies must take a lead and continue to work to protect and preserve our precious democracies and heritage. If a stronger glue is required, then Britain, the EU, and its allies must surely work together to mend the fractures.
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