Prof Garton Ash is Professor of European History at St Anthony’s College, Oxford. He was speaking to Oxford for Europe on 27 November 2024.
Here is a summary of the key points of his talk
The UK is self-evidently a European country: historically, geographically and culturally.
The key institutions of Europe are the EU and NATO. Brexiters told us that Brexit was a matter of sovereignty: take back control. A pure sovereigntist would advocate that we should also leave NATO, whose purpose is the protection of Europe. However, Brexiters never argued that we should leave NATO (believing that it kept us close to the US). As if to highlight the dissonance of our position, in 2017, shortly after the Brexit referendum, the UK stationed troops permanently on the Eastern border of Estonia, for the protection of Europe.
The essential conundrum for the UK is the tension between our security policy commitments (NATO) and our commercial policy commitments (Brexit).
The impact of Brexit before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
When we look at the economic impacts of Brexit, even before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the cumulative loss of Brexit is estimated to be between 4 and 6% of GDP.
But even more palpable and immediate has been the loss of international influence, reputation and soft power. 15 years ago, the UK enjoyed one of the most privileged positions in the world. We were extremely well placed and respected within Europe, and as a key player within Europe, we enjoyed an influential position in the anglosphere and with the rest of the world.
In throwing away our position within the EU, we lost everywhere. No longer a bridge to the EU, we are far less important now with the US and have far less influence in other countries outside the EU. And in continental Europe, the UK doesn’t figure at all. Even with the question of nuclear security – and we are one of only two countries in Europe to possess such capability – they turn only to France.
A new situation
Post Brexit, there are two key dates: those two developments place the whole Europe in a dramatically new situation.
- 24 February 2022, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine;
- 5 November 2024, with the election of the Trump.
On the one hand Putin invading from the East; on the other – Trump plausibly withdrawing the US from the West.
The Post War Order
Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, there are two key periods for European history:
- the post war period from 1945
- the post Wall period from 1989 – 2022.
Beginnings in history, as in life, are particularly important.
In the first 5 years following 1945 we created the structures and institutions of international order in which we are still working today, including NATO, the UN and the Council of Europe.
After the Berlin wall came down in 1989, we shaped a European order which lasted for the next 30 years – the EU and the growth of NATO to include former Soviet states.
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, we are coming to the end of the third year post the invasion – we haven’t created anything comparable in response to these double challenges and the war is not going well.
The situation post the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
It’s perhaps too early to say how we should characterise the period post the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but the following 7 features are suggested:
- War has returned to our continent – the largest war in Europe since 1945. The dead and wounded at the front are almost certainly over 1 million. At the moment, Ukraine is losing, and Trump is a real threat to its future.
War has also returned to the Middle East, which has a big impact on our society. - Hard right nationalist politics are on the rise – far higher than the level we were used to 10 years ago (electoral support up from 10% to at least 30%). Several European countries now have hard right parties in government, including the Netherlands, Italy and Hungary.
- Previously economically stable countries in the EU are now struggling, including Germany and France.
- The world is experiencing a major technological revolution impacting our entire information ecosystem through social media. In terms of regulation, Europe is moving towards some level of success in terms of regulation. However, we are nowhere in terms of innovation. As regards AI – the major developers are the US and China, a small amount in the UK, but almost nothing in Europe.
- Climate change – global average temperatures showed a sustained rise over 1.5 degrees above pre industrial levels this year, for the first time. 1.5 was the original target. We are nowhere near being able to hold to the 2 degree target.
- Europe’s relationship with the US has changed. This is not just the re-election of Trump – he is a kind of hypertrophic expression of a much longer trend of declining interest and commitment, which goes back at least 25 years. Trump will prioritise nation building at home, and then Asia, before Europe. This is a huge challenge for Europe, which has depended on its NATO relationship with the US for years. It can do so no longer.
- The war in Ukraine has revealed that we are in a post Western world. The West still exists, but there are enough other powers now – eg Brazil, Russia, India and China – who are rich and powerful enough to counterbalance the West.
We threw the kitchen sink at Russia in terms of sanctions. However, as other countries are still trading with Russia, its economy is growing faster than Europe’s.
Where does that leave the UK?
The UK today has one of the most centrist, stable and sensible governments in Europe. What a change. This government is seriously engaged in a “reset” with our European partners.
However, in order to win this election with a big majority, Starmer and Labour set very clear red lines: no Single Market, no Customs Union, no Freedom of Movement.
At the same time, he set very modest goals to achieve with the EU:
- a better deal for our musicians and artists
- mutual recognition of professional qualifications
- regulatory alignment for chemicals
These are small scale measures, but they are difficult to achieve with those red lines in place – as we see from the offer of a Youth Mobility scheme from the EU. This has, thus far, been rejected by our government, because it was considered, wrongly, to be going back on the promise of no return to Freedom of Movement.
With the election of Trump, we are likely to see the US pull the rug out from under Ukraine. In terms of a reset of our relations with Europe, this might bring us closer to Europe, as we will play a larger role in assisting with the security of Ukraine. A new security collaboration is already being set up with the collaboration of Germany, Poland, France and Britain.
On the other hand, the first thing Trump has said he will do is to slap tariffs on imports. At the same time, there are siren voices singing of our special relationship with the US. These voices will say that because we are outside the EU, and because of our financial services, and because Trump has a soft spot for Britain and thinks he has a friendship with the Royal family, we might cut a special deal with the US and have lower tariffs.
Such a deal would threaten our ability to move closer to Europe economically. As former ambassador Lord Darroch said, in any deal, the US will require free access for their agricultural goods – taking their chlorinated chicken and their hormone injected beef, thereby undermining our own farmers, as well as potential trade deals with the EU. As regards negotiating trade deals, Mandelson has been quoted as saying that we have to find a way to have our cake and eat it. It’s not going to work.
At the moment there isn’t a clear strategy behind Starmer’s position of straddling both the EU and US camps. At some point he will have to make a choice – being close in defence to Europe, while trying to seek a trade deal with the US, is not a coherent strategy.
So what should we as Europeans in the UK do? What should we push on?
At this point, we should push on the small things –
- Erasmus – the symbolic human and cultural importance is vast.
- Youth mobility – it’s madness that this is on offer from the EU, but we have thus far rejected it. It is clearly in our interest. We can limit such a scheme in time and in number, and we must take all students out of the immigration statistics, where they do not belong.
- Finally, we must push for closer economic ties with the EU – our biggest and closest market. If the UK is starting to move towards the EU on trade deals, then, towards the end of the parliamentary term, there is at least a serious political discussion to be had about putting rejoining the CU/SM to the voters. And let’s hope the Lib Dems back this move when the time comes.
You can read a biography of Prof Garton Ash and watch a video of his talk here.
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