To keep global warming below 2°C, the WIL has proposed an economic model based on sufficiency that they call “Sustainable Convergence”. The report by Chancel et al is packed with detail, giving hope that humanity still has a chance to prevent a climate catastrophe.
In just four chapters they describe:
- how Sustainable Convergence creates a more equal and prosperous world by refocusing economic activity on sustainability;
- the creation of a Global Justice Platform to finance rapid decarbonisation and the transition of economic activity from producing material goods to other sectors;
- a new Democratic International Order including the reform of Global Monetary Governance; and
- the political challenge of Building a Majority for Equality, to counter the strong opposition of the global rich.
Sustainable Convergence through revised economic activity
There are two ways that sustainable convergence can be achieved through a refocusing in economic activity. Firstly, with a move to an economy based on sufficiency. This pertains to focusing the economy to produce goods and services that are needed, rather than being driven by profit. Moreover, moving away from producing material goods towards services, such as education and healthcare, and driving changes in food production, land use, and forestry would aid in achieving this outcome.
The table below shows projections for sustainable convergence by 2100. In addition to those shown in the table, other projections for sustainable convergence show how by 2100:productivity gains and the need for fewer material goods would reduce the working week to 20 hours; economic and domestic labour would be shared equally among men and women; and the dietary shift towards plant-based protein would cut emissions, free up agricultural land used for grazing, and stop deforestation (p.39).
The second method in refocusing economic activity is to deliver fast energy transitions. This entails rapidly adopting the use of electric energy across all sectors and ending the use of fossil fuels to generate it.
The International Energy Agency has developed three scenarios of decarbonisation: Slow (SD), Intermediate (ID), and Fast (FD). The levels used in the report are broadly aligned with these but differ in that:
- they do not assume large-scale carbon capture and removal to achieve net zero, relying instead on reforestation as a natural carbon sink; and
- they assume that the share of nuclear power in electricity generation falls by around two thirds by 2050 (p.41-43).
Global Justice Platform
The purpose of a Global Justice Platform (GJP) will be to tax those with the greatest wealth and income to create a World Sovereign Fund. The Global Justice Fund would invest in sustainable assets essential for rapid decarbonisation, and provide countries with funding for climate, education, healthcare, and other services (p.12-15). The figures proposed for a GJP would see total education and health spending rise from 13% of world GDP today, to approximately 38% by 2100.
Humanity’s challenge
The challenge for humanity is whether it is possible to transition to a fairer, just, and more equal society by participation and deliberation, and avoid the suffering predicted by some:
“In The Ministry for the Future, science-fiction author Kim Stanley Robinson imagines a world where major climate catastrophes occur – including a heatwave that kills millions in Uttar Pradesh and a coalition of eco-activists shooting airplanes – before public opinion, governments, and international organisations alike finally decide to transform our economic and political systems.” (p.26)
The ongoing and unfolding disputes in the world currently (Ukraine, Greenland, Panama, Venezuela, Palestine, Sudan, and Iran) demonstrate why international governance needs a serious reset with voting based on population not wealth. Development aid will be lifted from 0.4% of Global GDP to 8-10% by the Global Justice Fund, but even so, education and health expenditure falls short of what equal access to such would require. Currently, per capita expenditure on education in North America is 20 times that of Sub-Saharan Africa. By 2050, this would still be three times greater. The report presents a similar picture for healthcare (p.54-65).
In the global taxation proposed for 2026-50, just 1.2-1.5% of the world population would pay a global wealth tax. After 2060, this would fall to 0.5% with a similar pattern for a global income tax (p.68-75). The result would be a sharp narrowing of income and wealth gaps between rich people and poor people, with large majorities benefitting from higher income in all regions. By 2100, the income of percentile 99.9 will be just 4.5 times greater than percentile 10.
A new Democratic International Order
A new international order is defined by the charter for the Global Justice Fund. This would:
“…be governed according to a double majority system, whereby all regular budgetary decisions need to be approved by 55% of countries representing 60% of the people… specify the guiding principles and constitutional rules under which the Global Justice Fund operates, including the type of global wealth tax and global income tax, the purpose of the country dividends, the functioning of the World Fund, and so on.” (p.93)
Central is the need for a fresh approach to providing an international clearing union to end global imbalances, and an international currency:
“United Nations Central Bank issues a new international currency (“United Nations Currency”) and operates an International Clearing Union inspired by Keynes’s 1943 proposal but adapted to 21st-century needs. It reforms global monetary governance, signalling a break from the dominance of rich countries’ currencies and reorienting the international financial system toward sustainable convergence and global justice.” (p.99)
Major imbalances, caused by large trade surpluses/deficits or the holding of foreign assets/liabilities, can and do create international tensions. These in turn threaten the goal of sustainable convergence. To end the structural overvaluation and undervaluation of the currencies of large and small nations respectively, global monetary governance needs to be reformed. The report shows how “Special Drawing Rights” (SDR) administered by the IMF act effectively as a currency used between central banks now. This could become the basis for the new UN Currency (UNC) needed to bring stability to exchange rates (p.98-100). The democratic governance rules envisioned for the charter should also extend to the World Bank, the World Trade Organisation, and the International Labour Organisation.
The necessity of building a Majority for Equality
Building a Majority for Equality is essential as the GJP will be strongly opposed by the global rich:
“… nothing can be achieved without a powerful citizen movement and a network of broad-based organisations (including labour unions and political parties) which are sufficiently well organised and effective at promoting the Global Justice Platform… While direct political and electoral processes are central, the success of the Global Justice Platform will ultimately depend on a broader cultural and intellectual battle about the meaning of sufficiency, equality. and prosperity.” (p.111)
Such movements need the strength to challenge power. This is especially relevant in nations where wealthy individuals control regulatory systems by funding political parties and controlling media channels.
Along with equality, workers’ rights, and environmental goals, the need to promote awareness of historic injustice is discussed. This includes the facts that:
- today’s billionaires would never have accumulated so much wealth without the carbon emissions between 1970-2025 (these account for 70% of the total emissions since 1800 (p.115); and
- a significant fraction (2-3%) of the wealth created since 1800 can be attributed to slavery or colonialism (p.118).
If the US and China decline to take part initially, a group of the richest countries in Europe and East Asia could lead the formation of a large North-South coalition. A later start date may be more realistic and have little impact on the economic model. However, this would increase the risk of temperature rises above 2°C, and the chance of hitting major climate tipping points (p.114).
Why Sustainable Convergence is the priority
We are already out of time. Our current economic model has failed. By 2100, humanity could be experiencing the worst-case scenario of global warming. This could mean billions dying from famine, drought, flood, fire, and violence. In a forward to Michael Hudson’s The Destiny of Civilisation, Lau Kin Chi wrote:
“In contemporary Chinese, the word for ‘economy’ has its roots in 6th-7th century terms that translate into ‘governing the world and caring for the people’.”
Sustainable Convergence fully embraces this and offers the greatest advantage to the vast majority of humanity. People across the world need to put this on the agenda of their political parties, unions, and environmental, community, cultural, and faith groups. From this they can start to build a citizen movement from the ground up to make it a reality. Surely nothing else matters!
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