The last week of January 2025 in Germany was quite eventful: On 27/1 the world commemorated the liberation by the Red Army 80 years ago of the Auschwitz concentration camp, where the Nazis had murdered more than a million of Jews, Sinti and Roma, prisoners of war, and other minorities.
Two days later, on 29/1, the Bundestag (the German Parliament) held a special session where President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Roman Schwarzman, one of the last living Auschwitz survivors, spoke to parliamentarians and the German public. Shortly afterwards the leader of the major opposition party, Friedrich Merz, of the CDU/CSU (the Christian Democratic Union and the Bavarian Christian Social Union) introduced a law to limit “illegal immigration”. While the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party opposed the initiative, the Liberal Party supported it. Merz’s initiative only won a majority because the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) also supported it.
This was the first time that the CDU/CSU and the AfD had voted together in Parliament. Shortly afterwards a prominent member of the CDU, former Chancellor Angela Merkel, publicly criticized Merz for having broken his previous promise that his party would not try to gain a parliamentary majority with the help of the AfD. As I explained in a previous WEB article, the AfD is not only an ultra-nationalist party, but also has quite a number of members with explicitly racist views, resembling those of the Nazis. It seems no coincidence that it has, remarkably, gained the support of Elon Musk, who proudly used the fascist salute after US President Trump’s second inauguration.
CDU/CSU leader Merz failing to gain a majority together with the AfD
On 31/1 the Bundestag held an extremely long session, full of acrimonious allegations, after the CDU/CSU had presented its initiative to gain a majority for a law on stricter immigration rules. Before the vote Merz had tried to press the SPD and the Greens to vote for his initiative. The parties of the rump government of Chancellor Scholz (after the Liberals had left) had failed to reach a compromise with the CDU/CSU. When the personal votes had been counted, there was a great surprise: even though the Conservatives and the Liberals had the full support of the AfD, Merz’s proposal did not gain a parliamentary majority: 12 members of the CDU/CSU and 16 members of the FDP had refrained from voting, which inevitably led to a narrow defeat, by 338 to 349.
Afterwards the only members of Parliament who were jubilant were from the AfD. Merz’ initiative had clearly split the “democratic centre” of Parliament, while the ultra-right party had again managed to join the CDU/CSU in a vote. Merz clearly had suffered from the intervention two days previously of Angela Merkel, who openly criticized Merz for having broken his promise to never rely on a AfD vote and uttered her concern about the conflict at the “democratic centre” of Parliament.
The parliamentary drama before the Bundestag election
All this happened just three weeks before the parliamentary election due on 23 February, which had become necessary because Chancellor Scholz had lost his “Vertrauensfrage” (vote of confidence) on 16/12/2024. The parliamentary debates in late January reflected the ongoing election campaign. CDU/CSU leader Merz clearly aimed at responding to public concerns, particularly after two deadly attacks committed by illegal immigrants (the last one in Aschaffenburg, Bavaria). He further aimed to undermine the AfD, which for a long time had been a vigorous opponent of Chancellor Merkel’s “liberal” immigration policy. However, the question remains whether Merz’ policy shift will indeed take votes away from the AfD.
Merz’ assault against the Schengen regime
One major problem of the CDU/CSU initiative was caused by its calling for permanent border controls, thereby preventing immigrants from entering Germany. The EU’s Schengen regime calls for border controls on the EU’s outside borders and allows border controls among “Schengen countries” only for up to six months and only under “exceptional conditions”. Merz’s legislative proposal, which closely followed previous AfD demands, thus threatened the EU’s single market – the cornerstone of Germany’s economic well-being. Without noticing, Merz thus added force to the AfD’s call for Germany to leave the EU (the “Dexit”, see my WEB article on the AfD).
Merz had been the major opponent of Angela Merkel in the fight for the CDU leadership after chancellor Kohl stepped back and he lost against her, as a result of which she became Germany’s Chancellor for 16 years (November 2005 to December 2021). Merz has never served in an important position as a political leader and now people ask whether this 69 year old man is trustworthy and fit to become Germany’s next chancellor.
Will the AFD become even stronger?
In recent pre-election polls the AfD ranks second with 20+ percent of possible votes.
This party of ultra-nationalists and modern Nazis obviously manages to profit from the “nationalist wave” all over Europe – see Hungary, Austria and most recently Belgium.
Donald Trump’s election victory and Elon Musk’s bizarre appearances also contribute to the AfD’s “popularity”. Germany’s parties of the “democratic centre” – the CDU/CSU, the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP – still reach more than 60 percent combined in recent polls. At the moment the Liberals are polling well below the “5 percent hurdle” and might not gain representation in parliament. This leaves the CDU/CSU, the potentially strongest party, with only the SPD and the Greens as potential coalition parties – and it will be reliant on their ability and willingness to reach reasonable compromises.
It therefore will depend on these parties whether Germany will get a functioning government on 23 February and remain a stable democracy.
Editor’s Note: See also Philip Cole’s article on the German election.
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