Parliamentary churn is an inevitable feature of an election year. But when will public service become more important than public perception among our leaders?
Recent months have seen a spate of retreats from UK parliamentary life. To date, a total of 89 MPs have announced they will not stand in the anticipated 2024 general election.
Naturally, the majority of these (56) hail from the Conservative Party. There are high-profile faces set to disappear from the Conservative benches come autumn. Among them are erstwhile maverick chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, serial cabinet minister Dominic Raab and former defence secretary Ben Wallace. A clutch of ‘blue wallers’ from the 2019 intake are also bowing out after just one term.
Beyond the ruling party, Labour grandees Margarets Beckett and Hodge, Ben Bradshaw, and Harriet Harman are stepping down, along with the SNP’s firecracker Mhairi Black and expert Boris-baiter Ian Blackford.
There’s a way to go to beat the cull of 2010, when 150 quit. It was a mirror image of recent events when Labour MPs at that time could see the writing on the polling station wall. Nonetheless, 2024 is young and let us not forget the date of the election itself is yet to be confirmed. We can expect more declarations in the weeks and months to come.
Don’t leave me this way
It’s easy to be cynical about the Conservative exodus. The gig’s up; the gravy train stops here. Robbed of power, where’s the attraction in public service? The hard miles of constituency work are a far cry from COBRA meetings, VIP procurement lanes, and lucrative consultancy offers, real or fictional.
There are other reasons to leave, of course. Black has cited the ‘toxic environment’ of Westminster as a factor in her decision, and that’s not difficult to imagine.
Many MPs, such as Mike Freer, have experienced threats to their safety, or that of their family, and we know that tragically these are not always idle. Who can blame them for wanting out?
Boundary changes have seen several departures, while others have earned their time outside the rat race after long years of service.
Yet for those drawn to the glamour and trappings of power, opposition must seem a humdrum prospect indeed.
What’s next?
Fortunately for politicians in our juggernaut of a first past the post electoral system, they can see the end a mile off. Months of opinion polls have put Labour consistently double digits ahead of the Conservatives, and even the Commons speaker Lindsay Hoyle is jumping the gun on naming the next PM. A change of government is baked into public discourse. You can see it in the eyes of every hapless Conservative panel member sent to take the fall on Question Time.
This gives MPs plenty of time to follow Boris Johnson into the speaker-for hire market or tap their banking buddies for a plum adviser role like Sajid Javid. Remarkably, more full-time TV careers are not out of the question for Nadine Dorries, Matt Hancock and, should he choose to leave Westminster, Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Lucrative post-parliament roles aren’t a new phenomenon. For example, Tony Blair managed a spectacular pivot into Middle Eastern diplomacy after the 2003 invasion of Iraq hastened his departure from parliament in 2007. Everyone has to make a living, but it’s a fine line between moving on and cashing in.
And what’s next for the Conservatives?
An early dilemma for a Conservative opposition will be whether to pivot left or right to regain ground. With any luck, the debate will be short lived as the electorate start to reap the benefits of whatever public investment a Labour government can squeeze out of the coffers.
Those who foretell the demise of the Conservatives underestimate the party’s ability to adapt to the public mood.
To stand any chance of proving the doomsayers wrong, however, the next leader they elect must be significantly better at reading the room. Johnson, Truss, and Sunak – three tin-eared leaders in quick succession – have rendered the party out of earshot of what politicians like to call ‘ordinary people’ and the rest of us simply call ‘people.’
And what next for us all?
A glimpse into the near future makes it clear there are huge challenges ahead. The macro human failings of war, environmental destruction, and global poverty are on one scale. Then there’s an urgent need to adapt to the climate emergency and just transition to clean energy. There is also the housing crisis, picking through the wreckage of Brexit, dusting off the concept of equality and social justice, the challenge of reviving hollowed-out public services, the malady of post-truth social media, and the uncertain impact of AI.
Many of these challenges disproportionately affect younger people, whose patience with our leaders’ neglect is not boundless.
The phrase ‘Westminster bubble’ is overused, but there’s no doubt that parliament is far too self-regarding and careerist for the times. Keir Starmer’s retreat from the £28bn green investment plan is an example of where things go when leaders are too frightened to reveal to the public the big truths behind our way of life. That infinite growth on a finite planet is a myth is just one.
Until public service matters more than public relations, the big solutions we need will continue to evade us.
The appetite for government with the greater good in mind will only grow. Those who ignore the groundswell are destined to be blindsided by it, and obsolescence will surely follow.
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