The second of a two part series.
In the first part of this article we argued that the idea of politics as a broadly symmetrical battle between parties was only ever an approximation and that it should have been clear for many years that US politics no longer fitted this description.
In this part we argue that the same is true in the UK, that progressives in both the US and the UK have been slow to respond to this fundamental change and that we cannot afford to continue looking at UK politics through the old lens. We need to act fast if we wish to preserve UK democracy.
Checks and balances
After Brexit, the British journalist Carole Cadwalladr revealed the roles of Facebook and Cambridge Analytica in using sophisticated micro-targeting of tailored messages to voters during the Brexit campaign. She showed that, for the first time in UK politics, modern military Psychological Operations (PsyOps) techniques had been deployed against the British population and she highlighted the risk to democracy this implied. Since then, the technology has advanced further, and the amount of data held on each of us has increased – but nothing has been done to prevent such PsyOps from being used in future elections. The Intelligence and Security Committee warned us of Russian interference and called for a proper Inquiry – but there has been none.
After May’s government ran aground on Brexit, Johnson led a government which was not renowned for being systematic. But in one area it was both systematic and effective: removing checks and balances on its own power. It tackled everything from the independence of the Electoral Commission and the ability of the courts to hold the government to account to the right of civil servants to give unbiased legal advice to ministers and of citizens to peaceful protest. There are echoes here of Project 2025.
Most recently, Musk hinted that he would make a contribution of $100mn (around £78mn) – and the support of social media – to make Farage PM. This is technically illegal but there are obvious loopholes: he could give the money via his UK subsidiary or as his father has suggested, he could become a UK citizen for the purpose of being able to make this donation. The limit for campaign expenditure by all parties in the last election was increased to £35mn – so Musk will have to deploy much of this money in ways which would not officially count as campaigning, and do so outside the election period. None of that would be a challenge.
This is clearly a game-changer for UK politics. As Lord Johnson of Lainston, the Conservative Party co-chair, said last week, it is extraordinary that Musk is “basically buying one of the political parties here.” That is an understatement: Musk is aiming to buy UK politics. And if he succeeds, we can expect a UK equivalent of Project 2025 and an end to effective democracy.
A lens that ignores all the points above is one which ignores the real power battle and the real dangers we face. Here is an updated lens.
Last year we wrote that the far-right might be about to lose the battle but still planned to win the war. We noted that having the far-right vote split between two parties was a major challenge and said:
“… the options are: 1. Destroy the Conservative Party and throw your weight behind Reform; 2. Destroy the Reform Party and throw your weight behind the Conservatives; and 3. Engineer some kind of merger.”
They may have chosen option one.
Progressives are fighting the last war
Despite all the signs four years ago that Trump and his backers were showing an extraordinary disregard for democratic norms – or even anything remotely resembling them – the Biden government failed to take appropriate steps to prevent a recurrence. It treated Trump and his backers much as it had treated George HW Bush and his backers. The UK government cannot afford to be so relaxed.
Trump is now president-elect and the Republicans control both Houses. He is well-placed to implement Project 2025 – a plan which will dismantle key aspects of the US social contract and its constitutional safeguards. The damage to the US (and to the rest of the world) may be enormous – and very hard to reverse.
The UK government is new and cannot be blamed for not having acted yet, but it seems to think that no extraordinary steps will be needed here to protect our democracy. Even its reaction to Musk’s proposed donation seems to be that it is “not a current priority.” If that is true, it is dangerously complacent.
Conclusion
If we do not want to go the way of America, we must start to look at political reality through a different lens: in the House of Commons, it still looks like a battle between Labour and the Conservatives; in the outside world, it is already something very different. To see what action we must take, we need a new lens.
Recognising the importance of action, we have started a new project: Defensive Constitutional Reform which will propose practical actions the government can take while there is still time.
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