In Part one, Kerry Lawson discussed the factors working against Labour in Government
What is Labour’s election strategy?
To understand the current political climate it is necessary to question Labour’s election strategy.
Labour ministers are ruling out scrapping the two-child benefit cap, because it is popular with ‘key voters’. This is despite warnings that failure to do so could result in the highest level of child poverty since records began and that its removal would at a stroke lift thousands of children out of poverty, saving money in the long term. Even allowing for the need to win elections in order to govern, the amoral callousness of this calculation is nevertheless breathtaking and chilling.
Curiously, there seems to be a disparity between the support of these ‘key voters’ which Labour needs to ensure electoral success and Labour’s present polling and unpopularity. Since April 2025 Reform UK has been ahead of Labour with the Conservatives several points behind and Starmer’s favourability rating, the difference between those who have a positive opinion of him and those with a negative opinion, is -34, although this is well ahead of Reeves at -42. Although there may be an element of protest in the local election results at Labour’s disappointing first months in office, Reform UK is maintaining a lead in the polls
If the results of the 2024 general election were a rejection of the status quo with the electorate looking for a government with new and different ideas, it is clear that Labour has failed to connect with voters who are now looking towards Reform UK for the change that is so desperately needed.
Proportional Representation (PR)
Under our First Past The Post (FPTP) voting system Labour came to power and won a large majority – 411 seats out of 650 – on 33.7% of the vote. With the swings to Reform UK seen in the local elections in which they took a similar, 31% of the vote and their win in the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election which saw their share of the vote increase by 20.6%, while Labour’s dropped by 14.2%, Reform UK could win a similar, large majority to that of Labour’s in a general election. As the Compass ‘Thin Ice’ report explains a 6% swing against Labour is enough for the Government to lose its majority.
With only 31% of the vote in the local elections, Reform UK’s dramatic wins must largely be due to the use of the FPTP voting system. Indeed, if a general election were held tomorrow with FPTP, it would seem likely that Farage would be the next occupant of 10 Downing Street.
Whatever the downsides to PR, it is imperative that Labour introduces PR before the next election so as to prevent this happening. With PR, if a party is to gain power it must win more than 50% of the votes or have the support of coalition partners. PR does not guarantee that Reform UK would be excluded from forming a government, but it is a much more significant hurdle to overcome as Geert Wilders in the Netherlands found.
The challenges of government
Starmer has successfully led the Labour Party from being regarded as unelectable to being the party of Government, which in five years is an exceptional achievement. The landslide which Labour won was in large part due to the Conservative Party being rejected by the electorate, although no doubt Labour’s tactic of doing and saying as little as possible to avoid being targeted by the right-wing media, as well as the fact that the election was called earlier than had been expected, helped.
However, once in government a different approach is essential to win over the electorate. To achieve a second term Labour must be more than good administrators. They must communicate a positive strategy and respond directly to voters’ concerns. Above all they must be the party of change that they promised. This requires different skills to winning an election and would appear to be less within the Labour leadership’s current skill set.
How to avoid a Reform UK government
With Labour’s large parliamentary majority it is certainly possible to work towards a second term. Rachel Reeves did not need to have the same economic approach as before with its fixation on growth. As Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah of the New Economics Foundation points out we are now following the economic model of a developing country! This leads to inequality and instability.
A record 4.5 million children are living in poverty in our rich country, with a rise in ‘Victorian diseases’ being seen. Clearly poverty must be tackled as a priority.
Brexit has damaged our economy. Rather than let the far-right dominate the news, Labour could take the initiative and explain that the Brexit deal we now have is nothing like that envisaged when the advisory referendum was held in 2016 and that our economy would benefit by moving closer to the EU.
Given Labour’s dire polling and the unpopularity of Labour ministers a rethink of their election strategy would seem appropriate – clearly their ‘key voters’ are not delivering! Indeed, with the volatility of the present electorate, their ‘key voters’ may no longer exist as a significant, coherent group. And is Labour really expecting those who have drifted off to Reform UK to return to the Labour fold in time for the next election?
Above all Labour must be recognized as the party of change with a cogent, positive vision.
Climate change
Farage is making an issue of net zero – the new Brexit? – which he calls ‘lunacy’ that destroys jobs and drives up household bills, and he blames climate change on volcanoes. Climate change is unquestionably a result of human actions and leaves an appalling legacy for his own family and future generations. However, this issue is yet another that would allow Labour to make a clear distinction between itself and Reform UK by driving a green transition. This will actually create jobs and stabilise household bills. It is also a policy that is popular with the electorate.
Are we sleepwalking or racing towards a Reform UK government?
It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that at present the Labour Government is sleepwalking towards a handover to Reform UK. In contrast, as if to emphasize how disengaged the present Government is from the electorate, the electorate appear to be racing towards Reform.
Relying on growth to produce results which will favourably affect a majority of the electorate before the next election in 2029 is foolhardy in the extreme. In any case, even if growth happens it will be too late to convince.
Of course, one hopes that the British electorate will not be fooled by Farage’s misrepresentations and lies. However remember that they fell for Johnson’s lies, just as American voters were taken in by Trump’s, not once but twice. We are now all suffering the consequences. It was not long ago that a second Trump presidency was not thought possible.
The results of the local elections and the by-election gave Labour a chance to reset, to accept that they needed to react to opinion. A reset did not happen; it was largely business as usual with possibly some ‘tweaks’ to the winter fuel payment and benefit cuts. They continued with their welfare reform bill with planned deep cuts to personal independence payments until forced into a humiliating U-turn by a backbench rebellion. Even then there was concern that the concessions did not go far enough and were a means of avoiding a Commons defeat rather than a real change in direction
Have the Labour leadership the humility, flexibility and understanding to change and listen? If not, without PR, Starmer risks finishing up with a long-term legacy as thin as that of Joe Biden!
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